| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Austin Peay | 14-34 | 1309.5 | -105.0 | 1204.5 | 54.2% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Wisconsin | 10-42 | 1204.5 | +17.1 | 1221.6 | 3.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Nevada | 14-13 | 1221.6 | +43.4 | 1265.0 | 23.1% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Marshall | 28-42 | 1265.0 | -17.2 | 1247.8 | 17.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Kennesaw State | 16-24 | 1247.8 | -6.5 | 1241.3 | 40.6% |
| 8 | Oct 8 2025 | L | Missouri State | 20-22 | 1248.6 | +9.7 | 1258.3 | 34.7% |
| 10 | Oct 22 2025 | L | Delaware | 28-31 | 1257.0 | +23.4 | 1280.4 | 30.0% |
| 11 | Oct 29 2025 | L | Jacksonville State | 21-24 | 1280.4 | +1.0 | 1281.4 | 21.2% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Florida International | 30-56 | 1281.4 | -48.1 | 1233.3 | 47.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Western Kentucky | 26-42 | 1233.3 | +6.9 | 1240.2 | 22.1% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Sam Houston | 31-17 | 1240.2 | +22.2 | 1262.4 | 51.0% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | New Mexico State | 31-24 | 1262.4 | +18.3 | 1280.7 | 41.8% |